La politica es la politica has posted 32 articles - one for each state in Mexico, including Mexico City - in advance of the July 1, 2018, presidential election. For links to all 32 articles, scroll to the bottom of this post.
Chihuahua is the largest state by land area in Mexico, and in recent years it has suffered greatly at the hands of warring cartels and corrupt politicians. The degree and extent of the damage is hard to fathom. It will take years to mend, but it’s reasonable to assume that a shift in the political landscape could make a difference for the better.
The present governor of Chihuahua is JavierCorral Jurado of the center-right National Action Party (PAN). Corral took
power in 2016 after the disastrous tenure of César Duarte Jáquez from the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). Duarte is now wanted by the Mexican government on
corruption charges, and is believed to be hiding in Texas.
The experience with Duarte could affect the
presidential election. Though Corral didn’t defeat his PRI rival in 2016 by a
landslide, (39% for Corral vs. 31% for the PRI candidate Enrique Serrano Escobar),
the electorate is aware that when the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto ascended to the presidency
six years ago, he ushered in an era of profligate corruption among some PRI governors,
the likes of which Mexico has never seen. And those states that are the most
corrupt are often also the most violent.
The violence in Chihuahua has had a dramatic
effect on the daily lives of the people, and on the ability of the press to
report on crime and hold politicians accountable. For example, Carlos Arturo
Quintana, also known as El 80, is the leader of La Línea or the New Juárez
Cartel and is alleged to have had great success infiltrating municipal police
departments, creating a complex network of political and police protection.
In 2016, Quintana wanted his mother-in-law
to be mayor of the small town of Bachíniva, in western Chihuahua. She
subsequently failed to win the nomination for the Institutional Revolutionary
Party (PRI) due to news reports written by journalist Miroslava Breach. Ms.
Breach was subsequently murdered in the state capital, also named Chihuahua, in
March, 2017, in a high profile case, with Quintana believed to be the principal
instigator.
Last month Quintana was arrested in the
municipality of Namiquipa, also in western Chihuahua, where it is alleged he
helped current Mayor Ramón Enríquez Mendoza of the PRI gain power. Quintana,
whose gang has been in violent conflict with the Gente Nueva gang, an offshoot of
the Sinaloa Cartel, now faces charges in both Mexico and the United States.
Chihuahua is one of the most dangerous places in Mexico to be a journalist. From the late 19th century until the beginning of the drug war in December, 2006, 15 journalists were murdered. As disturbing as that is, in the past 12 years the situation has deteriorated significantly, with at least 21 journalists killed. Given the population of the state, this is an astounding death rate, and is a clear indication that freedom of speech, and by association political freedom, is on its knees in Chihuahua.
Chihuahua is one of the most dangerous places in Mexico to be a journalist. From the late 19th century until the beginning of the drug war in December, 2006, 15 journalists were murdered. As disturbing as that is, in the past 12 years the situation has deteriorated significantly, with at least 21 journalists killed. Given the population of the state, this is an astounding death rate, and is a clear indication that freedom of speech, and by association political freedom, is on its knees in Chihuahua.
Journalists aren’t the only people in Chihuahua
being silenced at the end of a gun. In
April Luis Gutiérrez, an activist dedicated to providing food and medicine to
the indigenous Rarámuri people (also known as the Tarahumara), was found dead
by the side of a highway near Ciudad Madera, Chihuahua. The activist, who had
also accompanied and assisted the Tarahumara during legal procedures, was shot
to death when he was going to a meeting with other social activists.
And politicians themselves
are vulnerable. On Sunday, May 8, gunmen went on the warpath, killing eight
people in what appeared to be politically motivated attacks. In Ignacio Zaragoza, northwest of the capital city, a Democratic Revolution
Party (PRD) candidate for municipal council in the July 1 elections, as well as
three party workers, were found dead. PRD candidate Liliana García was found in a creek bed. The other three
victims were inside a construction supplies store owned by Felipe Mendoza, the
PRD candidate for mayor, which had been set on fire. The store was the home of
the local PRD party president, Octavio Martínez. In total, various commercial
buildings, six homes, and a vehicle were set on fire.
On the same day, Eduardo Aragón Caraveo, the
Chihuahua leader of the Social Encounter Party (PES), was found dead in the
trunk of his own car on the side of the highway running from the city of
Chihuahua to Aldama.
A quick take on all of this horror is that
PRI candidates tend not to get killed. That’s true, and it is also true that
the violence is occurring towards the borders with Sonora and Sinaloa. In some
of these remote communities rival gangs are fighting for territory, and politicians
who are not on the take – or who are on the take to the wrong group – are vulnerable.
Some politicians are speaking out. Magda
Rubio, an independent mayoral candidate in Guachochi, Chihuahua, decided in
January to go to the press to publicize the fact that she’d been receiving
death threats. At 42, Rubio campaigns while her four children and a husband
live in hiding. Hers is a stark example of the courage required to perform
what, in most countries, is relatively simple undertaking: to be a small town
mayor.
In response to the worsening security situation,
in January the federal government launched an operation called Titan Shield in
some of the nation’s hotspots, hoping to at least provide basic security. It
claims that in only a few months the murder rate in the border town of Ciudad
Juarez – infamous for femicides and intense intra-cartel conflict – has dropped
40%.
Clearly, security will be a huge issue in
the July 1 election in Chihuahua, and at the presidential level the electorate will
have to consider whether it wants to continue with the same approach. This would
be likely under PRI candidate José Antonio Meade, who is running as part of the
“Todos por México” (All for Mexico) coalition with the PVEM and New Alliance
(PANAL), and with Ricardo Anaya, who heads for the PAN-PRD coalition.
The only candidate offering a change –
albeit poorly defined – is Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO) running as the
head of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) as part of a larger
coalition called Juntos Haremos Historia (Together We Make History). AMLO is
the favorite to win the election, and should do well in Chihuahua, where the
PRI leaders have historically run their political party like a criminal organization.
AMLO will be helped too by the fact that a spotlight
is being shone on how the militarized approach to law enforcement has led to human
rights abuses in Chihuahua. The Inter-American Court of Human Rights is hearing
a case in which the Mexican military is alleged late in 2009. to have abducted
and “disappeared” three innocent people – including an 18 year old woman taken
away at gunpoint and screaming in front of her young brother and infant
daughter.
This is an important case, given the fact
that the military operate with near absolute impunity. According to an analysis
by the think tank Washington Office on Latin America, or WOLA, between 2012 and
2016 just 3% of investigations into alleged crimes committed by the military
have resulted in convictions.
In the context of security as an election
issue, it must be noted that aggressive, militarized actions like Titan Shield
often show short-term success, but do nothing to help create a sustainable,
well-structured approach. The result, as Mexico has seen since the drug war
began late in 2006, is an endless spiral of violence and abuse of power.
The government has tried to dodge the issue
by saying that the vast majority of forced disappearances are the fault of
criminal gangs. This is not true, given the role of police forces, particularly
at the municipal level in remote communities, to do the bidding of drug
cartels. Data for 2005-2015 by the Observatory on Enforced Disappearance and
Impunity in Mexico found that federal, state and municipal authorities were the
perpetrators 47% of the time.
 |
| After a cartel shootout in Gómez Farías last October |
What is true is that as cartels suborn security
forces and politicians to do their bidding, all while engaging in brutal turf
wars, civil society begins to feel the stress. This was made evident late last year
when medical personnel in Chihuahua protested cartel violence and dangerous working
conditions. Medical residencies require students to go to remote areas, and in
Chihuahua that usually means the western edge of the state, in the Sierra Madre
Occidental, where crime is rife. However, the specific trigger for the protest
was the kidnapping of Dr. Blas Juan Godinez, hospital director in the municipality
of Gómez Farías. Juan Godinez was taken after
he refused to give medical attention to cartel gunmen injured in a clash with a
rival group. (He remains missing, and his son and namesake Blas Juan Godinez is
now running for mayor of Gómez Farías.)
Bottom line? Candidates in the local
elections in Chihuahua, particularly in the western part of the state, will
continue to face pressure from criminal organizations. The PRI, as always, will
perform well, given the depth of its political networks. But when it comes to
electing a president, the vote should go to AMLO. The only risk is that the National
Electoral Institute’s (INE) workers on the ground in Chihuahua might be corrupted
by PRI activists, particularly in rural areas, where there is the perennial
risk of ballot stuffing, vote buying, and the like.
Below are the links to the posts for each state:
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